As efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza pick up steam ahead of this week’s anticipated formal negotiations restart, Israel and the US are bracing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Following the recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, which Iran and its Lebanese proxy have vowed to avenge, mediators have urged Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table in a renewed push to strike a ceasefire deal.
On Thursday, the negotiations are scheduled to resume in the capital cities of Cairo, Egypt, and Doha, Qatar. Key mediators in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, announced last week that they will use the gathering to present a “final bridging proposal” and urged both sides to attend.
A significant counterattack by Iran against Israel carries the risk of upsetting the cease-fire negotiations, which US officials have stated were advanced before Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran and Iran claimed responsibility for it. Israel has not acknowledged or refuted its culpability.
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom backed the calls for the warring parties to reach a settlement in a joint statement released on Sunday night, stating that “there can be no further delay” given the looming threat of a regional conflict.
The White House stated on Monday that it understands Israel’s worries and anticipates an attack from Iran in the near future, citing an augmented American force posture in the area as a pretext for an Iranian counterattack.
According to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, “it’s difficult to ascertain, at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and its proxies what that would look like.”
However, in a different press briefing on Monday, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel stated, “We fully expect these talks to continue to move forward.” The onus is on Hamas to agree to a ceasefire, according to Patel, who would not explicitly state who the US believes is the largest impediment to reaching a deal.
Although Hamas has indicated that it still wants a deal, it has not confirmed that it will attend the talks on Thursday, despite Israel’s announcement that it will send a delegation.
John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, stated that “it’s difficult to ascertain, at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and its proxies what that would look like.”
However, Vedant Patel, deputy spokesperson for the State Department, said during a separate press briefing on Monday that “we fully expect these talks to continue to move forward.” Patel stated that it is up to Hamas to agree to a ceasefire, but he would not say who the US thinks is the biggest obstacle to a deal.
Despite Israel’s announcement that it will send a delegation, Hamas has not confirmed that it will attend the talks on Thursday, even though it has indicated that it still wants a deal.
Over the weekend, the US and Israel kept up their preparations for that eventuality. According to the Pentagon on Sunday night, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expedited the deployment of a carrier strike group to the Middle East and ordered the USS Georgia, a guided missile submarine. Additionally, the US granted Israel access to $3.5 billion for US military hardware and armaments months after Congress had appropriated the funds. Additionally, in case of an attack, the Israeli military halted permanent personnel’s vacation travel on Monday.
Iran hopes that its strike against Israel “will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire,” according to its UN mission.
A volley of roughly thirty rockets were fired toward northern Israel on Sunday night by Hezbollah, the militant organization in southern Lebanon that receives support from Iran. Since the start of the Gaza War, rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel has increased almost daily, but Israeli officials fear a more extensive reaction from Hezbollah following the group’s top military commander Fu’ad Shukr’s assassination in a Beirut suburb last month.
However, the worst of the fighting over the weekend was once again limited to the Gaza Strip, where an Israeli strike on a mosque and school in Gaza City on Saturday killed at least 93 Palestinians, according to local officials, while the entire world watched Iranian airspace and the Israel-Lebanon border.
However, the worst of the fighting over the weekend was once again limited to the Gaza Strip, where an Israeli strike on a mosque and school in Gaza City on Saturday killed at least 93 Palestinians, according to local officials, while the entire world watched Iranian airspace and the Israel-Lebanon border.
As the tally of Palestinian casualties during the ten months of conflict approaches forty thousand, Israel’s attack provoked international censure. Reports of civilian casualties have the White House “deeply concerned,” according to the US National Security Council, which also expressed its condemnation of the strike and calls for its violation of international law. Following the incident, the three mediators reaffirmed their demands that the warring parties reach an agreement on a cease-fire.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have destroyed Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip, but the strike served as a reminder that the militant organization has reassembled in regions that were previously thought to be clear. The IDF said it had targeted a Hamas command post and killed several fighters.
Renewed talks
Following Haniyeh’s murder, Hamas appointed Gaza leader and mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel, Yahya Sinwar, to head its political bureau. This move further dashed hopes of a ceasefire agreement by implying that Hamas’ radical wing had taken control of the organization.
However, rather than pursuing further negotiations, Hamas asked for a plan to carry out the current offer made by US President Joe Biden in July, in response to the mediators’ request last week to resume talks.
“The movement demands the mediators present a plan to implement what they presented to the movement and agreed upon on July 2, 2024, based on Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution, and to compel the occupation (Israel) to do so, instead of going for further negotiation rounds or new proposals,” Hamas said in a statement on Sunday. The movement made this demand out of concern and responsibility towards our people and their interests.
The diplomatic talks are scheduled to take place, a regional source familiar with the discussions told CNN on Monday. Hamas intends to attend. The organization’s contradictory statements are a result of how each party to the negotiations is putting itself in a position to try to take advantage of and put pressure on rivals ahead of the crucial discussions.
An Israeli source familiar with the situation told CNN that mediators from Egypt and Qatar have informed Israel that Sinwar is open to a compromise. According to the source, US officials have communicated to their Israeli counterparts that a deal must be reached quickly to avoid a regional conflict.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently obstructed attempts to come to a consensus, even in the face of mounting domestic pressure to assist in freeing the hostages.
Referring to Netanyahu by his moniker, one Israeli source claimed that “nobody knows what Bibi wants.”
After hearing about a private meeting that Yoav Gallant held with the parliament, Netanyahu accused the defense minister of embracing a narrative that was “anti-Israel.”
Gallant allegedly informed lawmakers that in October of last year, he had suggested carrying out a preemptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, that Netanyahu had not endorsed the plan, and that the circumstances surrounding such a strike had now altered. Additionally, he is said to have called Netanyahu’s famous “absolute victory” line “nonsense.” The prime minister uses this slogan frequently.
Netanyahu was offended by the remarks, which is why he released the statement denouncing the Israeli defense minister. In a written statement, Netanyahu stated, “He should have attacked Sinwar, who refuses to send a delegation to the negotiations and who was and remains the only obstacle to the hostage deal.”
In response to the criticism on X, Gallant declared, “I’m determined to meet the war’s objectives and to keep fighting until Hamas is destroyed and the hostages return.
Gallant stated that one of the “weak points that were discovered during the war” was leaks from “sensitive and confidential forums,” adding that “we must act against it with all severity” without specifically addressing his leaked remarks.
“We have difficult days ahead of us where we must remain resolute and execute strong offensive and defensive moves,” Gallant stated.
